Prediction error demarcates the transition from retrieval, to reconsolidation, to new learning.

Although disrupting reconsolidation is promising in targeting emotional memories, the conditions under which memory becomes labile are still unclear. The current study showed that post-retrieval changes in expectancy as an index for prediction error may serve as a read-out for the underlying processes engaged by memory reactivation. Minor environmental changes define whether retrieval induces memory reconsolidation or the initiation of a new memory trace even before fear extinction can be observed.